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François Hollande pollsFrench presidential election 2027
François Hollande (PS) stands at 8.0% of first-round voting intentions in La Sonde's poll average: 5th of 14 candidates tracked. Over 30 days, the average has moved by +0.7 pt. Swing detector verdict: clearly rising (+1.2 pt over 14 days, 96% certainty). François Hollande appears in 16% of the line-ups tested by pollsters over 45 days: this average rests on few polls and should be read with caution.
Six months of polls
Line: average adjusted for pollster effects. Band: uncertainty. Dots: each published poll.
Dashed: period with too few polls (fewer than 3 in six weeks) or too wide a margin for a reliable average.
In the run-off
Average of polls testing each match-up. The centre line marks 50%.
If they withdrew
Pollsters do not yet test enough line-ups with and without François Hollande to measure transfers directly. The simulator estimates them from political positions, calibrated on measured transfers.
Latest polls
| Pollster | Fieldwork end | Score | Line-ups |
|---|---|---|---|
| IFOP LCI, Le Figaro, Sud Radio | 19 Oct 26 | 10.0% | 1 |
| YouGov Le HuffPost | 15 Oct 26 | 9.0% | 1 |
| Harris Interactive M6, RTL | 8 Oct 26 | 7.0% | 2 |
| IFOP LCI, Le Figaro, Sud Radio | 29 Sept 26 | 8.0% | 1 |
| Harris Interactive M6, RTL | 24 Sept 26 | 7.0–8.0% | 2 |
| YouGov Le HuffPost | 21 Sept 26 | 4.0% | 1 |
| Cluster17 Politico | 16 Sept 26 | 7.4% | 1 |
| OpinionWay CNews | 10 Sept 26 | 7.0% | 1 |
| Harris Interactive M6, RTL | 10 Sept 26 | 7.0% | 2 |
| ELABE BFMTV, La Tribune Dimanche | 28 Aug 26 | 7.5–8.0% | 2 |
A single poll often tests several candidate line-ups: the score depends on the line-up, hence the ranges.
Pollster effects
Usual gap of each pollster for François Hollande compared with the average, over 8 months. Positive: the pollster measures them higher than others.
Other candidates
Data as of 22 October 2026 (latest fieldwork included). Updated automatically. These figures are an average of published polls, not a poll. Method. Poll notices: French Polling Commission.