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Marine Tondelier pollsFrench presidential election 2027
Marine Tondelier (Écologistes) stands at 2.8% of first-round voting intentions in La Sonde's poll average: 10th of 14 candidates tracked. Over 30 days, the average has moved by −0.8 pt. Swing detector verdict: clearly falling (−0.6 pt over 14 days, 94% certainty). Marine Tondelier appears in 97% of the line-ups tested by pollsters over 45 days.
Six months of polls
Line: average adjusted for pollster effects. Band: uncertainty. Dots: each published poll.
Dashed: period with too few polls (fewer than 3 in six weeks) or too wide a margin for a reliable average.
In the run-off
Average of polls testing each match-up. The centre line marks 50%.
No run-off involving Marine Tondelier has been polled yet.
If they withdrew
Pollsters do not yet test enough line-ups with and without Marine Tondelier to measure transfers directly. The simulator estimates them from political positions, calibrated on measured transfers.
Campaign
- 22 October 2025 · Marine Tondelier announces candidacy
Latest polls
| Pollster | Fieldwork end | Score | Line-ups |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpinionWay CNews | 22 Oct 26 | 1.0% | 1 |
| Harris Interactive M6, RTL | 21 Oct 26 | 2.0% | 5 |
| IFOP LCI, Le Figaro, Sud Radio | 19 Oct 26 | 2.5–3.0% | 6 |
| ELABE BFMTV, La Tribune Dimanche | 16 Oct 26 | 2.5–3.0% | 5 |
| YouGov Le HuffPost | 15 Oct 26 | 5.0–6.0% | 5 |
| Cluster17 Le Point | 15 Oct 26 | 2.0% | 5 |
| OpinionWay CNews | 14 Oct 26 | 2.0% | 1 |
| Harris Interactive M6, RTL | 8 Oct 26 | 2.0–5.0% | 5 |
| ODOXA Backbone, Public Sénat, La Presse Régionale, Le Nouvel Obs | 7 Oct 26 | 3.0–3.5% | 2 |
| IFOP LCI, Le Figaro, Sud Radio | 29 Sept 26 | 3.0–6.0% | 10 |
A single poll often tests several candidate line-ups: the score depends on the line-up, hence the ranges.
Pollster effects
Usual gap of each pollster for Marine Tondelier compared with the average, over 8 months. Positive: the pollster measures them higher than others.
Other candidates
Data as of 22 October 2026 (latest fieldwork included). Updated automatically. These figures are an average of published polls, not a poll. Method. Poll notices: French Polling Commission.