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Raphaël Glucksmann pollsFrench presidential election 2027
Raphaël Glucksmann (Place publique) stands at 13.2% of first-round voting intentions in La Sonde's poll average: 4th of 14 candidates tracked. Over 30 days, the average has moved by +1.9 pt. Swing detector verdict: clearly rising (+1.8 pt over 14 days, 100% certainty). Raphaël Glucksmann appears in 78% of the line-ups tested by pollsters over 45 days.
Six months of polls
Line: average adjusted for pollster effects. Band: uncertainty. Dots: each published poll.
Dashed: period with too few polls (fewer than 3 in six weeks) or too wide a margin for a reliable average.
In the run-off
Average of polls testing each match-up. The centre line marks 50%.
If they withdrew
Pollsters do not yet test enough line-ups with and without Raphaël Glucksmann to measure transfers directly. The simulator estimates them from political positions, calibrated on measured transfers.
Campaign
- 23 August 2026 · Raphaël Glucksmann announces candidacy
Latest polls
| Pollster | Fieldwork end | Score | Line-ups |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpinionWay CNews | 22 Oct 26 | 13.0% | 1 |
| Harris Interactive M6, RTL | 21 Oct 26 | 12.0–14.0% | 5 |
| IFOP LCI, Le Figaro, Sud Radio | 19 Oct 26 | 12.0–16.0% | 7 |
| ELABE BFMTV, La Tribune Dimanche | 16 Oct 26 | 15.0–16.5% | 6 |
| YouGov Le HuffPost | 15 Oct 26 | 12.0–14.0% | 4 |
| Cluster17 Le Point | 15 Oct 26 | 11.0–16.0% | 5 |
| OpinionWay CNews | 14 Oct 26 | 13.0% | 1 |
| Harris Interactive M6, RTL | 8 Oct 26 | 10.0–11.0% | 3 |
| ODOXA Backbone, Public Sénat, La Presse Régionale, Le Nouvel Obs | 7 Oct 26 | 9.5–10.5% | 2 |
| IFOP LCI, Le Figaro, Sud Radio | 29 Sept 26 | 9.0–13.0% | 4 |
A single poll often tests several candidate line-ups: the score depends on the line-up, hence the ranges.
Pollster effects
Usual gap of each pollster for Raphaël Glucksmann compared with the average, over 8 months. Positive: the pollster measures them higher than others.
Other candidates
Data as of 22 October 2026 (latest fieldwork included). Updated automatically. These figures are an average of published polls, not a poll. Method. Poll notices: French Polling Commission.