Full summary
- Marine Le Pen reste en tête de la moyenne des sondages avec 35,0 % (+0,5 pt en 30 jours).
- Pour la deuxième place, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (16,9 %) devance Édouard Philippe (14,3 %) : un écart de 2,6 pt, statistiquement net.
- Mouvement le plus marqué sur un mois : Gabriel Attal (−2,6 pt).
- Probabilité de qualification au second tour estimée par le modèle, si les candidats testés se présentent : Marine Le Pen 95,6 %, Jean-Luc Mélenchon 48,5 %, Édouard Philippe 23,8 %.
- 7 enquêtes publiées sur les 7 derniers jours. Dernière : OpinionWay pour CNews (terrain achevé le 22 octobre 2026).
Who is really moving?
An arrow appears only when the five-week trend rises above statistical noise (at least 90% confidence). Everything else is stable, even if the numbers seem to move.
14-day trend
Slope of polls adjusted for house effects. Click a name to add it to the projection.
If trends continue: 30-day projection
The dotted line extends the current trend, slowing it gradually. The shaded area holds 8 in 10 outcomes if the dynamics do not change. This is not a forecast.
The race, day by day
A smoothed average of every poll, adjusted for each pollster's systematic lean. The shaded band shows the uncertainty of the average.
All candidates
A candidate's score depends on who else is tested. The average blends the scenarios that include them; detailed scenarios are in “Odds”.
How firm is the vote?
Two candidates at 15% can have very different electorates: one loyal, the other ready to leave. The solid part of each bar is the core (voters sure of their choice), the hatched part is what can still move.
One page per candidate
Average, trend, odds, latest polls and house effects: everything about each candidate we track (pages in French).
Explore La Sonde
What if a candidate dropped out?
Remove one or more candidates: the site redistributes their voters and shows the new first-round scores, with a range. Each result says whether it is measured in polls or estimated.
Who drops out?
Click one or more candidates to remove them.
Examples
measured transfers observed in polls
estimated transfers assumed from political proximity (least reliable)
Simulated first round
Possible head-to-heads
Average of run-off polls for each tested pairing, then your turn: set the vote transfers.
What the polls say
Transfer simulator
For each eliminated candidate, choose the share of voters moving to each finalist. The rest abstain. Defaults: one third / one third / one third.
Who can make the run-off, and win?
We simulate 20,000 elections from the current average and the actual size of polling errors seen in 2022. Pick a candidate line-up.
ⓘ These odds assume every tested candidate actually runs. One candidate entering or dropping out can change everything: pick the line-up you find most plausible.
Chance of reaching the run-off
Chance of winning
Combines the chance of each run-off pairing with run-off polls for that pairing.
Most likely run-offs
The ghosts of 2022
Overlay the current race on 2022, at the same number of days before round 1. Nothing was settled: Zemmour peaked in the autumn, Mélenchon ended on 22%.
Who takes votes from whom?
When a pollster tests two line-ups that differ by a single candidate, we see where their voters go if they do not run. We average all such comparisons.
Is this gap significant?
A 1,000-person poll cannot separate two candidates 1 point apart. Test any pairing.
What worries the French
Voting intentions do not say why. Barometers show what worries people and what will drive the vote.
Top concerns
Detailed issue ranking (April 2026, latest available)
What matters most to French voters (September 2026)
What matters to each electorate
Whose priorities match yours?
Pick the issues that will matter most in your vote. We compare them with the priorities each electorate reported in the large CEVIPOF electoral survey. Nothing is stored.
Your priority issues
Shared priorities
This measures shared priorities, not agreement on solutions: two electorates can rank immigration first for opposite reasons.
Latest polls
Every survey with its legal details: pollster, sponsor, fieldwork dates, sample. Full notices are filed with the French Polling Commission.
Pollster profiles
House effects
Each pollster's average gap from the overall average over 8 months (points). Not deliberate bias: methods, panels and weighting differ.
The campaign in dates
Declarations, withdrawals, rulings and debates, up to the run-off.
Who is winning the debate?
During TV debates, react live to each answer, then vote for the most convincing candidate. The curve shows reactions minute by minute.
How it works
An independent, ad-free site
La Sonde shows no ads and sets no cookies. Servers, the domain and the monitoring agent cost money: if the site is useful to you, a coffee makes a difference.
Support on Ko-fiMedia and websites
Charts can be embedded on your site for free (“Embed” button under each chart), with credit. For a custom version, an election-night package or the data, get in touch.
Contact:
The Monday briefing
Every Monday morning: the poll average, what moved and the week's polls, in your inbox (in French). Free, unsubscribe in one click.
Get the newsletter →